Uber 🚖

On top of moving into groceries and convenience-store deliveries, Uber’s looking into providing a new service, using it’s existing expertise, to help shift workers find work -

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I have to say when Uber said they wanted to always part of your life I figured that was just their CEO with marketing talk.

Not sure this is the level of innovation I expect from them but a nice touch and something the competition don’t offer in as much completeness.

A one-click gateway to everything that Uber can offer you.

I’m interested what the plan looks like, they have gotten the massive growth and set themselves up in countless countries, how will they monetise this now they are rooted.

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Uber’s not been granted a private hire vehicle license again, due to safety concerns -

quote from the Mayor of London’s statement on the decision

Edit

Here’s Uber’s response, with a link to this webpage.

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This is a pretty significant change of approach for Uber - voluntarily sharing data about their issues transparently. Presumably they wanted to preempt being forced to make disclosures by regulators. I’m surprised that they’ve not (yet) produced a similar report for the UK, given that safety concerns were the reason why their license wasn’t renewed by TfL but I expect they will.

Looking at the bigger picture, I think that more positive engagement with regulators & the public like this would benefit them a lot. It also gives them the opportunity to shape the narrative around important issues a lot more.

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Uber has set out expectations ahead of their quarterly report about the issues they are facing, the market has responded positively to the new.

With the quarterly report just round the corner it’s worth refreshing our memory about Uber’s fundamentals.

Like many high growth, high cash burn companies, Uber has a few issues with their profitability. That is to say they don’t have profitability. Overall the quality is very low, no profit and not paying anything back to shareholders. However, you’d be surprised (or not) to hear that Uber has a lot of Financial Strength. In terms of debt versus their cash flow, they are in a strong position. This helps out the overall Quality score and saves them from being one of the worst overall ranked Quality investments.

While hiring an Uber, or using Uber Eats might be cheap, their shares are not. Considered very expensive and overpriced. This is expected given the very low quality score compared to the aggressive growth Uber are executing.

The interesting part of Uber is the analyst predictions and future gazing, the Momentum. The future looks fast and strong for Uber, while the future revenue is very weak, the earnings are expecting to skyrocket. This is the prediction of the bets Uber have been making will pay off. Given the rules around profitability to be listed on an exchange in America, the alternative is a bleak outlook indeed!

A very typical high growth, high cash burn, future prospect setup. That said Uber has a number of innovative bets which a lot of their peers are not experimenting with. If Uber justifies it’s expensive share price comes down to what type of company you believe they are! Is this a tech company or a logistics one.

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Uber is shifting around it’s offering.

Bigger focus on delivery services and general same day solutions. Not a ground breaking switch but a good pivot to make it easier for people to send items and to encourage business to use their network.

We’ll see how the roll out and uptake goes. Sounds like they are adapting to the situation as it happens.

It’s also doing a good job of brushing over the employee versus contractor arguments. As long as Uber can focus on the benefits they are giving everyone and the feel good stories around their drivers stepping up (even if they have no other choice or income) it might give them a bit of a PR break.

Uber lying off 15% of staff. Better short their earnings on Friday…

Looks like trouble comes in pairs.

I expect it’s going to be missed targets and a weak outlook.

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But the high growth food delivery industry is charging ahead.

Looks like we will have an acquisition soon.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/12/uber-grubhub-in-talks-acquisition/

Uber are still chasing profitability so an all-share deal is the perfect outcome for them.

I think it’s just another way for Uber to burn money.

You typically deliver 2, perhaps 3, meals an hour. Takeaway meals aren’t that expensive. Profit margins are razor thin or nonexistent. It’s not scalable, unless eventually robots can do it.

They can merge and go bankrupt together. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

We are almost there

Though a driver is inside the car. It’s a Ford engineer.

I think we are nearly there as we have been nearly there with fusion energy for decades. There have been a lot of self-driving trials that have been successful, but most have been in “friendly” environments.

Regulation isn’t ready either and regulation typically trails far behind innovation, and thus becomes a drag.

I’d guess that we are at least 5 years away for it being common place. Hell, where I live you can’t even get an Uber - what works in a select few urban areas, doesn’t work commercially everywhere else.

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One further snippet, combined they would control 69% of home delivery market in the USA. Rep David Cicilline who leads house antitrust panel said yesterday this deal will never happen.

Better short $GRUB

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Very good insight. Both shares are up on the new of a potential merger but if it can’t be approved then it’s all hype for nothing.

That said if this gets into the hands of President Fart we might be dealing with a different situation. Has Trump successfully intervened with any mergers to date? That could be the wildcard here.

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Another 3,000 cuts, shuts 45 offices, and looking to sell non-core aspects of the business.

after the company said it would eliminate about 3,700 jobs and planned to save more than $1 billion in fixed costs. Monday’s decision to close 45 offices and lay off some 3,000 more people means Uber is shedding roughly a quarter of its workforce in under a month’s time.

Worth pointing out again that the 2020 Q2 is an estimate as we don’t have official numbers yet, but the ride service is expected to be hit very hard.

Uber has seen an increase in share price after this news broke, likely a sign from the market they want to see greater focus by Uber and they are happy to see action being taken.

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The dismantling of the gig economy?

Sadly I worry this encourages the gig economy.

Million unemployed and looking for additional income, and companies who don’t want the commitment of officially classified employees.

The gig economy is the next step after zero hour contracts.

Until there is more legislation around gig workers this isn’t going to go away any time soon. This is being argued in the courts but until hard restrictions are in place, be it Uber or anyone else, this will be an attractive business to create platforms/marketplaces for gig workers.

I predict coming out of lockdown that we’ll see a rise in gig-like workers.

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